This Article is written by:
1. Yashovardhan Rathore – Yashovardhan is a 3rd year BA LLB student at Jindal Global Law School
2. Devrishi Tyagi– Devrishi is a 3rd year BBA LLB student at Symbiosis Law School, Pune
When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Ukraine became an independent nation. However, due to instability in both, the economic and political conditions of the country, the nation became highly dependent on Russia for energy supplies and financial aid. The present conflict, however, began when massive protests started taking place in the country following the then-President Viktor Yanukovych’s refusal to sign the ‘Association Agreement’ for economic development with the European Union in 2013. These protests eventually forced President Yanukovych to flee the country, which resulted in the Russian forces moving into Ukrainian territory and taking control of the Crimean region. Over the years, the conflict between Russian-backed separatist forces and the Ukrainian military has led to the deaths of more than 10,000 people.
On 24 February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the beginning of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine by targeting military assets and cities across the country. Numerous experts believe that the Russian attack on Ukraine might open the path for China to lead a potential invasion of Taiwan. The Taiwanese Foreign Ministry broke its silence and condemned Russia for its attack on Ukraine but is also keeping an eye on its own security. Some media outlets have even gone as far as publishing headlines like- “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow?” Even after considering similar pretexts of a war, you can’t deny that every conflict is different from others on many grounds. Similarly, the conflict between China-Taiwan is much different than what unfolded in Russia-Ukraine. The Taiwan president, Tsai Ing-wen even went on to say that- “I want to emphasize that the situation in Ukraine is fundamentally different from the one in the Taiwan Strait.” From having geographical distinctions, where the Taiwan Strait provides a natural barrier compared to Russia-Ukraine, where they share a 1,200 km land border, the other distinction which has emerged in the recent days as well, is the possession of nuclear weapons.
Ukraine, which used to have one-third of the nuclear weapons of the erstwhile USSR, surrendered them as part of the Non-Proliferation of the Budapest Memorandum in exchange for ‘security assurances’ by The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America. Russia violated this memorandum, firstly when it decided to annex Crimea in 2014. The Russian President, Vladimir Putin stated that “a new state arises, but with this state and in respect to this state, we have not signed any obligatory documents” and they had never been under obligation to “force any part of Ukraine’s civilian population to stay in Ukraine against its will.” In 2016, the foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov repeated the President’s assertion that, “Russia never violated Budapest memorandum. It contained only one obligation, not to attack Ukraine with nukes” & as we all know, they once again breached the memorandum in 2022 with their invasion on Ukraine. Taiwan, on the other hand, does not possess any nuclear weapons but it can be concluded that they are indeed a ‘threshold’ nuclear state. They have had some nuclear programs in the past, but all such weapon programs were shut down in late 1980s by the US. Taiwan is also a part of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) since 1970. They also consider themselves ratified by the Geneva Protocol since 1929.
However, Taiwanese officials have consistently denied any parallels to the Russian-Ukraine conflict. Taiwan’s service industry, which produces semiconductors, that are used in everything from smartphones to automobiles, has been in high demand in China. As a result, they’ve had a lot of exchanges in terms of trade and commerce. Even experts on Chinese International Relations have had this view that a possible military action seems unlikely in Taiwan and “External influences on China’s decision over Taiwan are minimal.”
Throughout the course of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the international community has mostly shown non-tangible support to the State and people of Ukraine. On top of that, the acts of war that have been committed by Russia are violative of numerous international laws and treaties. Yet, the global community has taken no substantial action against the nation’s leaders to ensure that they do not go unpunished. In recent years, the culture of impunity that surrounds perpetrators of international crimes has only seen an upward trend. This could open the path for other global powers, like China, to follow in the footsteps of the present Russian invasion. To ensure that a similar situation does not arise in the future, the international community must act today towards punishing the perpetrators of international crimes. The aim of international treaties and laws is not just to provide a legal framework for prosecuting the perpetrators of heinous crimes, but also to make sure that the need for that does not arise in the first place.
