This Article is written by Meher (a fourth-year BBA LLB Student at Christ University Bangalore)
INTRODUCTION:
The world has been reviving from the pandemic. The past few years have left us shattered but there is hope as we learn to live with the pandemic. There are new threats emerging in the world. The geopolitical tensions, climate change and many other devastating measures taken by the nations threaten to alter the world dynamics. It is true that people are not the only cause for destruction but they are the major cause. We suffer the dire consequences of our doings. One such development of humans which proved to be shackling to the world is nuclear technology. Nuclear reminds us of shattering visuals. World war, death, genetic mutations and mayhem everywhere. But over the years nuclear has changed from being the science of fear to “atoms of peace”. Almost seventy years after Eisenhower’s speech the world is at crossroads and ready to jeopardise the whole peace mission for acquiring nuclear technology. The recent nuclear activities around the world in the past five years have zeroed the pace of the atomic age for developmental purposes. Some countries move away from nuclear completely while others are in a mad race to attain nuclear power for defence and stability. On the whole, nuclear arms control is dead. Every state has upped their nuke game and the measures are taken to tackle nuclear weaponisation are in tatters. The international law and treaties failed the world yet again. Some of the strategists even propose the deterrence theory where every state should possess nuclear arms to deter other states from attacking. Whatever the case is nuclear weapons pose a common threat to the whole world. the world is not ready for another Hiroshima Nagasaki. The weapons pose an existential threat to everyone especially in these heightened geopolitical tensions around the world. This race to acquire nuclear technology is not driven by moral or developmental purposes. It is driven by power-grabbing states wanting more power. Which makes the nuclear game much more dangerous. AUKUS is one such dangerous pact, which does not show any signs of dangers but is potentially harmful.
WHAT IS AUKUS:
The UK, US and Australia have signed a historic pact, for security purposes. Strategists also term the pact as an effort to counter China. Whatever the result is, it has triggered many reactions from the world. AUKUS, has attracted some unexpected reactions from various other such world fronts. The Quad, European Union, ASEAN and many other groups had mixed reactions to the tie-up. As the leaders of the AUKUS went on to say their biggest strength is their alliance and the technology transferred is an investment in their alliance, they broke many alliances while entering into this pact. The longest ally was France which was shattered with the declaration of this pact. The five eyes alliance has also been threatened with this pact. The question at the end of the day is why is everyone concerned with the pact. The answer is simple there might be covert action and all the disarmament talk about the submarines might not be true. This pact is just another way of converting a non–nuclear state to a nuclear state. The most dramatic component of the pact is the nuclear submarines. The submarines are propelled by the high enriched Uranium (HEU) which not to mention can also be used to make another nuclear bomb. Nevertheless, this HEU will be used in the nuclear reactor used for propulsion. There are many advantages of a nuclear submarine, there is a wider spectrum of missions, they allow for more covert action for a longer period to gather data and intelligence and they can spring into action very quickly. As of now, there are six countries with nuclear submarines, Australia becomes the seventh nation. What makes Australia’s submarines are different is they lack any nuclear armament on board. The pact is one of the biggest defence partnerships in decades and the biggest amount of technology transfer including artificial intelligence (AI).
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT:
Nuclear law is a pretty recent law. It is still in the infant stage but with growing nuclear technology uses in defence we have to increase the legal regime regarding the same. There is IAEA, non-proliferation treaty(NPT) and there have been recent talks on a nuclear ban treaty. But none of the conventions or treaties can stop this pact from happening as there is an absolute right for the state to use nuclear for defence and peaceful purposes. The World countries having nuclear weapons are increasing their nuke game to become the biggest nuclear powers of the world. Especially countries like China, Russia and North Korea are expanding their nuclear technologies and attaining new ones. The direct of the pact is there is a huge chance of proliferation with all the countries taking sides and acquiring nuclear armaments, there is a chance of an increase in covert actions.
INDIA’S STANCE: AUKUS can pose serious threats to India depending on how China will react. But where does India stand in the whole fiasco? India has two enemy neighbours who are nuclear-weapon states. If there is a war there is a huge loss to life and property in India. India has recently become an external auditor for IAEA. This says a lot about India’s position globally on the nuclear regime. Some strategists say that India will be delighted with the attention from big arms suppliers be it from France or AUKUS. But those strategists should understand we are in the most threatened position both geologically and politically.
CONCLUSION:
So to answer the intriguing question of whether there will be war. There will not be any war any time soon as there are much immediate attention requiring crises. The main crises can be the pandemic and many other existentially crises, like the food crisis in many countries and the climate change crisis. But this pact has created an unimaginative tension for every state to increase their defence and security. It has surely created an uncomfortable space for the nuclear haves and have nots.
