Abstract
India and China recently secured a big diplomatic win, with an agreement between them bringing to an end the long-standing military standoff along the disputed Himalayan border. This deal comes just in time for Indian Prime Minister NarendraModi’s trip to Russia for the BRICS summit where talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping might further seal the efforts to bring peace along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The deal will mark an important step in the normalization of relations between the two Asian giants, particularly on the level of trade and political cooperation. Keeping this context in mind, this article examines the background, the details of the agreement, and what could be the geopolitical implications for India, China, and the region at large.
Introduction
The diplomatic victory accrues to India and China in 2024 because the countries finally agreed on a vital settlement ending their prolonged military confrontation on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Himalayan region. It is to calm tension along one of the world’s most contested borders, after a four-year impasse that began with a deadly clash in 2020. This is well-timed to come at the cusp of Indian Prime Minister NarendraModi’s visit to Russia to attend the BRICS summit, where more engagement with Chinese President Xi Jinping may be crucial in consolidating this progress.
This article analyses the background of the India-China stand-off, details of the recently negotiated agreement, and its broader geopolitical and economic implications for both nations and the region.
Background: The Four-Year Standoff
The military standoff between India and China along the LAC has been traced back to their unresolved border dispute from the 1962 war that broke between the two countries. The conflict, during which Chinese forces advanced into Indian claimed territory left an ambiguous boundary contested in the Himalayan region. Known as the Line of Actual Control (LAC), this de facto border stretches over 3,440 kilometres-from Ladakh in the west to Arunachal Pradesh in the east.
Even while both these countries could maintain relative peace along the LAC for nearly five decades, there was always a tinge of distrust between them. Incidents of skirmishes, incursions, and face-offs kept on surfacing from time to time, though these were frequently softened with diplomatic efforts.
But things took a sudden turn for the worse in the matter in June 2020 when there was a violent clash between Indian and Chinese troops in the Galwan Valley, which left 20 Indian soldiers dead and an unknown number of Chinese troops dead. The death of these soldiers marked the first fatalities along the LAC since its inception nearly 45 years ago and plunged bilateral relations into their worst crisis in decades. After the incident both countries reinforced their military in the region with tens of thousands of additional troops, heavy artillery, and developed infrastructure to reinforce all positions. Through the years following that incident, diplomatic and military negotiations were engaged without any crucial breakthrough.
The stalemate had its impact, touching upon beyond militaristic considerations to touch upon trade relations and diplomatic ties between the Asian giants. Several rounds of disengagement in areas led to continuing tensions since neither was prepared for a full withdrawal of forces.
India and China became entrenched in a stalemate; almost watching each other’s every move along the LAC.
The 2024 Agreement: A Diplomatic Breakthrough
India and China have agreed upon an agreement to defuse the tensions on their Himalayan frontier, four years after military tensions rose with several rounds of inconclusive talks. The deal would comprise a series of steps to reduce the danger of further confrontations and restore stability along the LAC. The key provisions are:
- Improved Patrolling Mechanism: India and China have agreed to a clear and structured mechanism of patrolling on the LAC. The policy is aimed at not letting any accident or intentional encounter – which has often led to skirmishes – happen. Both parties are trying to stay clear of any misunderstanding that would fuel new tensions by establishing clear lines of communication and specified zones for patrolling.
- Troop withdrawal and de-escalation: The most significant aspect of this understanding is on the commitment by two nations to reduce troops within sensitive areas on either side of the border. Focus would be on the Galwan Valley and the PangongTso Lake, which have come out to be the flash points during the standoff. Reduction of troop would ease the probability of an accidental clash and help ease the military pressure along the LAC.
- Confidence Building Measures: To strengthen peace further, the agreement includes confidence building measures of the kind, for instance, by establishing communication hotlines and keeping regular high-level diplomatic engagement at the various levels. This will help in better transparency and coordination in case of a new dispute between Indian and Chinese forces. Both have also undertaken not to indulge into any militarily provocative action which might be a provocation to raise tensions.
The agreement is also timed with Prime Minister Modi visiting Russia for the BRICS summit from 22 to 24 October. Perhaps the sense that Modi and Xi Jinping might meet directly during the summit puts a diplomatic spin on the military arrangement. Further debates over strengthening bilateral ties can arise, especially in regard to trade as well as expanding multilateral cooperation through mechanisms like BRICS and SCO.
Geopolitical Consequences: New Beginnings for India-China Relations?
India-China relations have reached a defining point with this resolution of the military standoff. The LAC has been a persistent irritant in the bilateral relationship between these two nations, clouding better diplomatic and economic ties.
The very fact that an agreement has been reached about immediately relieving some of these immediate military concerns could be the beginning of a potential reset in relations.
Trade seems to be one of the largest common areas between India and China. Despite the controversy in the military arenas, China remains India’s biggest trading partner. In 2022, the trade between India and China rose to about $125 billion. Nevertheless, border tensions have affected the entire dynamics of this relationship with the growing self-reliance initiative under Atmanirbhar Bharat.
This new accord may revive the momentum for greater economic involvement in general, especially considering that both countries are being squeezed by other powers. China is slowing down and fighting soaring scepticism globally, while India seeks to revive its manufacturing base, first on growth and then to reduce dependence on imports. On this score, the alleviation of border tensions may allow both countries to focus even more sharply on trade and investment prospects, mutually leveraging each other’s respective economic strengths.
Deeper Strategic Implications:
The India-China deal also has broader strategic implications-in terms of regional stability in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific-in the overall scheme of things. India’s growing partnership with the United States, Japan, and Australia through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) seems to be a cause of much concern for China, who perceives it as an attempt to balance their regional influence.
Still, the understanding between the two sides might portend Chinese eagerness to reduce tensions with India-even as China continues to navigate its sometimes complicated relationship with the United States. De-escalation on its northern border affair opens up more strategic space for New Delhi to push through its Indo-Pacific priorities on maritime security and regional diplomacy.
An agreement, at the same time, would help reduce the risks of conflict on a wider regional level. The military standoff could be a long-drawn affair, indeed drawing in the neighbors, notably Pakistan, Nepal, and Bhutan-all having border disputes with India and China alike. The resolution of these immediate tensions by the two nations may itself help create a more stable environment within the region, thus reducing the risk of a larger multi-player conflict.
Multilateral Engagement
Another significant consequence of the deal is that India and China may cooperate closely with each other in multilateral forums. Both are members of important international organizations, such as the United Nations, BRICS, and the SCO. Although they differ on many issues, both have cooperated on issues such as climate change, global trade, and development at different times.
It may, therefore, better their capacity to cooperate on several fronts in these forums, especially with all the common challenges they and other world leaders have to negotiate during the climate action, the world economic recovery process, and also in the regional security debate. There is every likelihood that the BRICS summit that would see both Modi and Xi is poised to work out both their shared interests and managing differences more constructively.
Challenges Ahead: The Unresolved Border Dispute.
Although the present accord is a positive development, it does not dissolve the underlying territorial dispute between India and China. The LAC is an undefined, disputed border where large tracts of territory are claimed by one country or the other. In the western sector, India insists on its claim to Aksai Chin, which China occupies while in the eastern sector, China makes a similar claim over Arunachal Pradesh falling under India.
The agreement now reached resolves immediate concerns with regard to military presence and patrolling but awaits still resolution of the much-larger disputes over territory. If these disputes over territory continue, then no assurance exists for complete preclusion of clashes in the future. In such a case, therefore, the agreement is more of de-escalation rather than an ultimate resolution. All likelihood exists that the LAC will continue to be an area of friction in Sino-Indian relations going forward.
Conclusion
It is indeed a momentous step forward between India and China, taking recent agreement over resolving the military standoff along the LAC, ridding the skirmishes and steadying the disputed Himalayan frontier. Both nations have demonstrated commitment to peace through clearer patrolling mechanisms, reducing troop numbers, and building confidence with diplomatic measures.
While it does not address the larger issue of territorial contestation, it does open space for both countries to interact more constructively on issues of common interest. The BRICS Summit offers yet another opportunity for greater interaction between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping, as it could facilitate more stable, cooperative articulations of their relationship.
But the open issue of the border dispute will continue to bring possible new tensions along the LAC in the future. For now, though, the agreement signals a welcome de-escalation and a step towards more peace in the future in the region.
References:
- Hindustan Times
- ANI
